March 08, 2008

We need the regulators to backtrack on their own ideas

Sir Francesco Guerrero wants "ideas to stop backlash from regulators" March 8 and there is nothing like reminding them of the blame they have in this mess.

A market with many participants measures many type and dimensions of risks, applying many different time horizons and using many different risk measuring techniques. The final result might not be perfect but at least it avoids the risk of leveraging excessively on any presumption and opinion that might turn out to be dangerously mistaken.

It was when the regulators forced the market to give special consideration to what some few credit rating agencies told it about risks of default over a short period of time, that the information capacity of the market was constrained and extremely dangerous regulatory biases and fresh systemic risks introduced.

Although there is such a thing as prime mortgages awarded to the subprime sector it was only because credit rating agencies gave good ratings on securities collateralized with badly awarded mortgages, that this pure junk could grow into incredible volumes and travel so far that a German bank became their first casualty.

And there are currently almost more courses given about how to analyze how the credit rating agencies might change their ratings that there are about analyzing the underlying credits and companies.

This has to stop, urgently; and it is not a question of the credit rating agencies becoming better at what they do since that will only force or induce us to follow them even more to a precipice.